SAMM — Scientific Asset Market Model

Theories about markets, tested like science.

Costco (COST) · United States

Latest assessment (2026-08-27) · flagged for human review ⚑
934.66 TRENDING_BEAR trend NEGATIVE

The short-term daily picture leans down — 6 of 6 signals point that way. But the longer weekly picture is supportive, with 7 of 10 weighted points in favour. Weighing all the evidence, the system draws no directional conclusion — an honest “don't know”, not a prediction of zero.

Short term — daily structure

Leaning down
for 0/6 against 6/6
Six conditions on price vs its 20/50/200-day averages — where the stock stands right now.

Long term — Classic assessment (weekly)

Supportive
for 7/10 against 3/10
The original 10-point scale: weekly trend conditions weigh heavier than daily ones.

Conclusion

INDETERMINATE
No directional conclusion
Signal strength — how strongly today's own conditions align in this direction (daily structure, weekly assessment and weighted evidence, -12). It is not a probability: it describes the evidence behind the reading, not what the stock will do. INDETERMINATE means the evidence supports no direction — an honest "don't know".
Assessed under Trend Continuation Theory v1.0 · Established. Measured record: 206 confirmed, 101 refuted of 5232 registered — see the theory page for the edge against the base rate.
▲ What speaks for
Weekly EMA20 above EMA50 (+2)Weekly EMA50 above EMA200 (+3)Weekly EMA200 rising (+2)
▼ What speaks against
Close below EMA20Close below EMA50Close below EMA200EMA20 below EMA50EMA50 below EMA200EMA200 fallingDaily EMA20 below EMA50 (+1)Close below daily EMA20 (+1)Close below Bollinger midline (+1)

18 experiments — 18 pending, 0 confirmed, 0 refuted. Active theories: Quiet Reversal Theory.

As ofTheoryHorizon ExpectedStatus
2026-08-27Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate200UPPENDING
2026-08-27Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate100UPPENDING
2026-08-27Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate20UPPENDING
2026-08-27Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate200UPPENDING
2026-08-27Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate100UPPENDING
2026-08-27Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate20UPPENDING
2026-08-26Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate200UPPENDING
2026-08-26Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate100UPPENDING
2026-08-26Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate20UPPENDING
2026-08-26Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate200UPPENDING
2026-08-26Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate100UPPENDING
2026-08-26Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate20UPPENDING
2026-08-25Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate200UPPENDING
2026-08-25Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate100UPPENDING
2026-08-25Quiet Reversal Theory v2 Candidate20UPPENDING
2026-08-25Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate200UPPENDING
2026-08-25Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate100UPPENDING
2026-08-25Quiet Reversal Theory v1 Candidate20UPPENDING

Established = a validated theory that has earned adoption. Candidate = under prospective evaluation — its predictions are registered and scored here, but it has not yet earned trust.

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